According to Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, Ether may not be the best investment choice for a potential bull run in 2025. In a recent market report published on December 30th, Thielen expressed concerns that Ethereum might deliver underwhelming returns compared to Bitcoin.
Ethereum’s Poor Medium-Term Investment Performance
Thielen emphasized that while Ethereum has been volatile, it remains a poor medium-term investment opportunity. He stated, "We believe it remains a poor medium-term investment and expect ETH to underperform BTC once again in 2025." Thielen also noted that one of the most important metrics to watch in 2025 will be the trend in active validators.
Validator Growth Rate Concerns
Thielen pointed out that the growth rate of validators had turned negative, dropping by about 1% over the past 30 days. This development raises concerns about the increasing risk of more validators exiting the network. Thielen stated, "A rise in unstaking seems ‘logical,’ arguing that Ethereum lacks ‘real demand’ outside of staking."
Counterarguments from Tim Lowe
Attestant’s chief business officer, Tim Lowe, recently shared a differing opinion with Cointelegraph. Lowe argued that demand for Ether can easily increase with refined marketing and a unified value proposition, which would naturally see it accrue more investors over time.
Lowe also highlighted the importance of diversification from Bitcoin as a catalyst for Ethereum’s growth. He stated, "Demand for Ether can easily increase with refined marketing and a unified value proposition, which would naturally see it accrue more investors over time."
Comparing Bitcoin and Ethereum Performance
In contrast to Bitcoin, which has seen a 121.4% return since January 1st, 2024, Ether has clocked a 46.3% return over the same period, according to CoinMarketCap data.
The launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States on January 11th, 2024, was met with strong demand, pushing Bitcoin’s price to new highs within two months. In contrast, the US Ether ETFs launched in July saw significantly less demand, leading to a more bearish view of the asset.
Duncan Upgrade and Pectra Upgrades
Thielen expressed skepticism about the potential impact of upcoming upgrades on Ethereum’s performance. He stated that the Duncan upgrade, which reduced the network’s gas fees and allowed it to handle more transactions, "arrived six months too late." Thielen also questioned the effectiveness of the Pectra upgrade, set to be introduced in early 2025.
Thielen noted that only two upgrades out of 19 have had a notable positive impact on price, and even those occurred during Bitcoin bull markets. He stated, "The three major Ethereum catalysts of 2024 have largely fallen flat, adding little value overall."
Analysts’ Diverging Opinions
While Thielen expressed concerns about Ethereum’s performance in 2025, other analysts shared differing opinions.
Pseudonymous crypto trader Cold Blooded Schiller stated that Ether has been "rangebound" since December 25th and one of two scenarios is likely to play out: either a price breakout or a breakdown to the Dec. 20 range low, potentially retesting the $3,000 level.
Pseudonymous crypto trader Dal echoed a similar scenario, stating that Ether could go in one of two directions: either compressing hard and breaking through 3,554, or sweeping 3,102.
MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe is more bullish on Ether, stating that it is showing signs of breaking out relative to Bitcoin in January 2025. Van de Poppe noted, "I wouldn’t be surprised if $ETH / $BTC breaks through 0.04 in January."
