Bitcoin Price Metrics Suggest More Upside Despite 92K Acting As Resistance Barriers

Consolidation Around $91,000

Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow 7% range since November 12, indicating a period of consolidation around $91,000. This suggests that investors are taking a cautious approach, waiting for the right moment to make their next move. Despite the narrow range, derivatives indicate that professional traders remain confident in the bull market.

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Derivatives Indicate Confidence

The BTC options delta skew has dropped to its lowest level in four months, indicating that the market is pricing a discount for put (sell) options. Levels below -6% suggest bullish sentiment and reflect confidence in the $87,000 support level, particularly from whales and arbitrage desks.

What Drives Momentum?

While data suggests optimism, it does not guarantee that investors are confident the bull market will continue. It is crucial to analyze the factors driving recent momentum. For example, if analysts view MicroStrategy as the primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s surge to a new all-time high, signs should be visible in BTC futures and margin markets.

Is MicroStrategy the Sole Driver Behind Bitcoin’s Bull Run?

The speculation that a few entities are responsible for the buying activity above $87,000 gained traction after MicroStrategy revealed an additional purchase of 51,780 BTChas been made on November 18. According to an SEC filing, the company now holds over $29 billion in Bitcoin and is actively pursuing a plan to raise $21 billion through the issuance and sale of company shares.

Investors Believe in ETFs

However, investors believe that Bitcoin has a greater chance of continued price appreciation if spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) net inflows show signs of early adoption, including increased exposure from pension funds and large hedge fund managers. However, the latest data from November 14 and 15 revealed $771 million in net ETF outflows as investors decided to take profits following the recent rally.

Analyzing Professional Traders’ Positioning

To understand how professional traders are positioned, it’s essential to analyze Bitcoin futures and margin markets. For example, sustained demand for leveraged BTC futures indicates bullish sentiment, while increased use of price hedging suggests whales and arbitrage desks lack confidence in the current price momentum.

BTC Futures Premium at 17%

The Bitcoin two-month futures premium (basis rate) surged to 17% on November 18, far exceeding the 5%-10% neutral threshold. This level of optimism was last observed almost eight months ago, in late March, when Bitcoin successfully defended the $64,000 level after two weeks of downward pressure.

Margin Markets Indicate Bullish Sentiment

Currently, the Bitcoin long-to-short margin ratio at OKX is 14 times in favor of longs (buyers). Historically, periods of excessive confidence have driven the indicator above 40 times, while levels below 5 times favoring longs are generally considered bearish.

Conclusion

Ultimately, Bitcoin derivatives and margin markets signal strong bullish momentum, regardless of the concentration of buy-side activity driven by MicroStrategy. The lack of a significant impact from the retest of the $88,700 level on November 17 further suggests that investors are not ready to exit at the first negative price swing.

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